Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 25.923142 27.570010 29.330890 31.364887 33.663921 36.199381 39.231596
2025-11-16 22.982806 25.141348 27.572693 30.550675 34.152780 38.442626 44.058226
2025-11-23 21.815957 24.322514 27.248834 30.987069 35.745607 41.770522 50.290152
2025-11-30 20.706896 23.409926 26.650906 30.927004 36.596102 44.149562 55.584503
2025-12-07 19.699217 22.510758 25.952537 30.611981 36.998959 45.886999 60.191575
2025-12-14 18.450886 21.220873 24.654784 29.378087 35.990418 45.455414 61.332182
2025-12-21 17.896854 20.762133 24.374955 29.453552 36.775179 47.687723 67.158151
2025-12-28 17.500187 20.472958 24.284130 29.758916 37.891808 50.540911 74.708654
2026-01-04 16.804104 19.756224 23.578483 29.141376 37.558635 51.006530 77.886917
2026-01-11 16.580701 19.645004 23.674606 29.662632 38.998050 54.597153 88.343590
2026-01-18 16.282019 19.415420 23.589719 29.903363 40.004940 57.576714 98.561690
2026-01-25 15.738119 18.831664 22.981829 29.319766 39.606897 57.914443 102.569384
2026-02-01 15.019040 18.050438 22.153862 28.498934 38.993003 58.246616 108.226144
2026-02-08 14.364618 17.340419 21.405226 27.770934 38.505934 58.848255 115.452339
2026-02-15 14.100485 17.148811 21.377095 28.144946 39.954281 63.684484 139.377065
2026-02-22 13.740010 16.802882 21.100279 28.093435 40.623036 67.021542 162.136838
2026-03-01 13.351659 16.398979 20.713438 27.827837 40.852384 69.410191 184.547101
2026-03-08 12.786005 15.722033 19.888794 26.783647 39.478960 67.618079 184.793069
2026-03-15 12.544104 15.498651 19.734061 26.847666 40.274799 71.494860 223.056189
2026-03-22 12.366972 15.360028 19.698320 27.106497 41.489221 76.876508 288.573973
2026-03-29 12.012259 14.950642 19.228565 26.582717 41.026457 77.423604 318.022727
2026-04-05 11.905634 14.899259 19.308655 27.024921 42.660386 84.784577 472.237786
2026-04-12 11.750302 14.769491 19.258448 27.228817 43.805028 91.152386 730.381759